Credit and market research provider CreditSights Inc says it does not expect sizeable near-term growth in non-gaming spending per capita in the Macau market. Any top-line growth in overall non-gaming revenue is likely to come from increased visitor volume, it added.
“We see a more challenging pathway for average non-gaming spending per capita to significantly increase, following the slower expected growth of China’s economy,” the institution said in a memo published on Thursday.
It noted that China had lowered its 2026 real gross domestic product growth target to “4.5 percent to 5 percent”, down from “around 5 percent” during the 2023–2025 period.
“We continue to see visitation volumes as the main driver for further improvements in total non-gaming spending,” wrote analysts Nicholas Chen and David Bussey.
A majority of Macau’s tourists are from the Chinese mainland.
The analysts stated they expected additional non-gaming offerings in the market later this year. These included the planned renovation of 100 suites at MGM Macau, the phased opening of the luxury REM hotel at City of Dreams Macau from the early third quarter, and the progressive re-opening of refreshed rooms and suites at The Venetian Macao from the third quarter. CreditSights said they were all likely further to support top-line non-gaming spending.
Data compiled by Macau’s Statistics and Census Service show that in the first quarter of 2026, total non-gaming spending jumped by 24.5 percent year-on-year to a record MOP24.43 billion, equivalent to 144 percent of the figure recorded in the first quarter of 2019, prior to the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, CreditSights noted.
This was driven by higher non-gaming spending per capita, which rose 9.5 percent year-on-year to MOP2,179, coupled with stronger visitor arrivals during the quarter, which increased by 13.7 percent to 11.2 million.
According to CreditSights, non-gaming spending in the first quarter of 2026 was equivalent to about 37 percent of Macau’s overall gross gaming revenue (GGR) for the same period.
“Looking ahead to May, we see room for a better GGR print year-on-year from the strong tourist footfall figures during the recent Labour Day holiday,” said the institution, without providing an estimate.
It added: “Recent new premium offerings by the Macau operators – i.e., the new Chairman’s Club from Wynn Macau, and the recently completed suite conversion and renovated premium gaming areas at MGM Cotai – should also provide some GGR support.”
CreditSights noted that for the first four months of 2026, GGR rose 12.1 percent year-on-year to MOP85.77 billion, “largely driven by the premium segment”.
The average monthly figure of approximately MOP21.4 billion was “comfortably” above the MOP19.7-billion average required to reach the Macau government’s stated 2026 GGR target of MOP236 billion.
“As of April 2026, Macau has reached 36 percent of said GGR target,” the institution noted.
