Macau’s first-quarter gaming industry-wide earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, amortisation (EBITDA) may have seen 7-percent to 8-percent year-on-year expansion.
While it was supported by the 14.3-percent growth in the city’s casino gross gaming revenue (GGR) during the period, EBITDA likely lagged due to player mix and player reinvestment. That is according investment institutions CLSA Ltd and Citigroup in respective notes issued recently.
“We expect Macau gaming’s first-quarter sector reported EBITDA to grow 7 percent year-on-year to US$2,067 million, aided by 14-percent gaming revenue growth,” suggested CLSA analyst Jeffrey Kiang in its memo.
Citigroup estimated Macau’s first-quarter casino GGR – which came in at MOP65.87 million (US$8.16 billion) – could translate into 8-percent year-on-year industry EBITDA growth, albeit the institution noted such performance would be “largely flat” judged quarter-on-quarter.
“The positive GGR and EBITDA growth during the [first] quarter should remind investors that players’ appetite for gaming seems little bothered by the ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties,” remarked Citi analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau in their latest memo on the sector. That was understood refer to events outside the Asia-Pacific region.
Nonetheless, the Citi analysts suggested the slower pace of first-quarter Macau-industry EBITDA expansion compared to GGR growth “can be attributed to the less favourable VIP/mass GGR mix”.
Citi stated: “We also suspect that some casinos suffered from less favourable VIP hold, which hurt margins.”
They added: “That said, we forecast that industry EBITDA margin will hold up at a respectable level of circa 27 percent, implying that player reinvestments remain reasonable.”
CLSA estimated Macau industry first-quarter EBITDA margin at 25.3 percent.
“Despite certain one-off opex [operating expenditure] in fourth quarter of 2025, margin will likely remain under pressure due to the ongoing premium-driven [gaming] revenue (which requires spending on reinvestments),” suggested CLSA’s Mr Kiang.
The CLSA analyst added: “VIP win rate in this [first] quarter will unlikely exceed the normal levels of circa 3.0 to 3.3 percent.”
Of Macau’s six casino operators, Sands China Ltd indicated greatest year-on-year improvement in first-quarter EBITDA, according to the respective memos of Citigroup and CLSA.
Citi stated Sands China’s EBITDA gain might have been 20-percent to US$643 million, “reflecting its quarter-on-quarter market share gain and a relatively easy comp[arison] as Londoner Grand was not fully opened in first quarter of 2025”.
Sands China’s Londoner Grand – a hotel facility at its Londoner Macao casino resort in Cotai, and with an aggregate of 2,405 keys – had after a resort revamp, been opened in phases from September 2024, thorough to the second quarter of 2025, according to Sands China statements.
The Citi analysts also noted: “We expect SJM [Holdings Ltd] to be the operator with the worst performance in first quarter, with EBITDA expected to fall 6 percent year-on-year to HKD903 million [US$115.3 million].”
Sands China is estimated to have had the largest share of first-quarter Macau-market EBITDA, at 30.5 percent, according to CLSA’s estimates.
CLSA also assesses that Sands China gained 2.2 percentage points sequentially in its share of Macau-market first-quarter EBITDA, the best improvement among its peers.
Sands China is a unit of United States-based Las Vegas Sands Corp, which also has a Singapore casino business, Marina Bay Sands.
