Moody’s Investors Service has changed the credit outlook on the Macau Special Administrative Region (SAR) government to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’, while keeping the region’s local and foreign currency issuer ratings at “Aa3”. The Tuesday announcement follows Moody’s outlook change on the government of China’s “A1” rating to ‘stable’ from ‘negative’.
Macau’s “Aa3” rating – the fourth highest on Moody’s scale, and within the high investment-grade category – continues to be supported by what the rating agency described as “significant credit strengths, including very high per capita income and the absence of outstanding government debt”.
Macau’s “large fiscal and external reserves provide the economy with very strong buffers to absorb shocks and address negative long-term trends including a structural slowdown in China’s economy,” Moody’s stated.
The institution noted Macau’s fiscal reserves had reached about MOP667 billion (US$82.64 billion) as of end-2025, equivalent to roughly five to six times annual government spending, providing a substantial buffer against potential economic shocks.
Foreign exchange reserves, built up through sustained current account surpluses linked to the tourism and gaming sectors, further underpin resilience, it added.
Moody’s said that under its baseline, it expects Macau “to maintain ample external and fiscal buffers, supported by continued strength in the tourism and gaming sector, even as the pace of growth in the sector may gradually slow alongside weaker economic growth in mainland China over the longer term”.
Moody’s said risks to the rating are balanced. Upside potential could stem from faster-than-expected economic diversification, while downside risks include exposure to developments in mainland China, as well as any sustained weakening in the gaming and tourism sectors.
“Macau’s growth profile may benefit from more rapid progress toward economic diversification than we currently expect,” the rating agency stated.
The institution reiterated that changes in China’s sovereign rating would likely lead to corresponding action on Macau, given the close linkages between the two economies.
