Macau’s casino market recovery continues to be led by premium-mass play rather than VIP, even as overall gross gaming revenue (GGR) remained below pre-pandemic levels in the first quarter, says a Monday note from JP Morgan Securities LLC.
Industry data compiled from operator disclosures indicated mass-table and slot GGR rose 11.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, representing circa 127 percent of 2019 levels, while overall market GGR recovered to 87 percent of pre-Covid performance.
Hold-adjusted earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) for the sector reached 92 percent of 2019 levels, suggesting profitability is recovering faster than headline gaming revenue, according to JP Morgan’s memo.
VIP GGR grew 19.7 percent year-on-year in the first quarter but was still only 31 percent of 2019 levels, JP Morgan said based on operators’ data. Lower VIP hold rates also weighed on the quarter’s performance, the brokerage noted.
Official data from Macau’s casino regulator, the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, showed that the VIP segment produced 29.7 percent of all first-quarter GGR, compared to 25.1 percent of GGR in the first three months of 2025.
Sands China Ltd, a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp, strengthened its position during the January to March period, posting the largest gain in market share among the city’s six concessionaires, JP Morgan stated.
The firm’s GGR share rose to 26.2 percent in the three months to March 31, up 1.5 percentage points sequentially, supported by “an all-time high” contribution from its VIP business, at circa 28 percent, according to the brokerage.
However, the stronger VIP mix translated into only modest EBITDA-share gains because of lower margins than mass gaming, the institution added.
Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd recorded a market share of 20.3 percent in the first quarter; while MGM China Holdings Ltd held a 15.8-percent share at third place, per JP Morgan’s memo.
At property level, Sands China’s The Londoner Macao emerged as one of the quarter’s winners. The complex reached a record 9.9-percent GGR market share and moved into third place among Macau properties, behind Galaxy Macau, run by Galaxy Entertainment, and City of Dreams, a property of Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd.
The Londoner Macao was also identified as the biggest sequential share gainer among individual properties, alongside Wynn Palace, a Cotai property controlled by Wynn Macau Ltd. Wynn Palace saw its market share grow to 8.6 percent in the opening quarter of 2026, up 0.9 percentage points from a year ago.
JP Morgan forecasts casino GGR of MOP21.96 billion (US$2.72 billion) for May, representing 4-percent year-on-year growth, while full-year 2026 GGR growth is expected at around 5 percent.
