Germany’s Interstate gambling regime faces a potential loss in betting turnover to unregulated operators of €300m-to-€400m during the FIFA World Cup.
The estimate has been put forward by Deutscher Sportwettenverband (DSWV), the trade association of Germany’s licensed online sportsbooks, which has once again called on regulators and Bundesländer to recognise the structural deficiencies within the Interstate Treaty framework that severely undermine channelisation.
World Cup 2026 will be the largest betting event since the Fourth Interstate Treaty on Gambling (GlüStV) entered into force on 1 July 2021. The DSWV forecasts that total betting turnover on the tournament will exceed €1bn, yet a significant proportion of that activity is expected to bypass licensed operators and flow to the black market.
For the association, the tournament will serve as a critical test of whether Germany’s regulated betting market is achieving its primary objective of directing consumers towards licensed products.
Instead, the DSWV argues that restrictive market conditions continue to erode the competitiveness of regulated sportsbooks and create opportunities for unlicensed operators to capture demand.
According to DSWV estimates, licensed operators are expected to process between €600m-€700m in wagers during the tournament. A further €300m-€400m could be staked with offshore operators serving German customers without a licence.
“Major tournaments generally affect the industry as much as an extra month’s revenue,” said Mathias Dahms, President of the DSWV. “Games involving German teams, in particular, usually generate a high volume of betting activity. As a fan and a representative of the sports betting industry, I therefore hope that the German national team stays in the tournament as long as possible.”
However, Dahms stressed that the volume of betting expected to flow to unlicensed operators highlights Germany’s continuing black-market problem.
“This indicates that we still have a serious issue with the black market,” Dahms said. “About a third of users, at least to some extent, use illegal services according to official figures from the regulatory authority. The black market has recently grown 17 percent faster than the legal market, according to the GGL.”
Interstate blocks
The DSWV continues to argue that Germany’s regulatory framework places licensed operators at a competitive disadvantage.
Industry stakeholders have repeatedly criticised the country’s 5% tax on betting stakes, contending that it reduces margins and competitiveness against the offering of illegal bookmakers.
Other detrimental factors include Germany’s €1,000 universal monthly deposit limit and restrictions on in-play betting products.
Interstate-licensed sportsbooks are unable to offer several popular micro-event markets that are commonplace in other regulated jurisdictions, including next goalscorer, penalty outcomes and a range of player-specific betting events.
“Some bets that are popular with consumers are prohibited in Germany,” Dahms explained. “The live bet ‘Will Player X score another goal?’ for example, cannot be offered under current regulations.”
The DSWV further argues that illegal operators enjoy greater freedom in their marketing activities and are therefore better positioned to capitalise on the increased public attention generated by major sporting events.
“Illegal providers can advertise much more freely and without restrictions than regulated companies,” Dahms stated. “At the same time, tournaments such as the World Cup offer an opportunity to bring players back into the legal market.”
The association maintains that licensed operators provide the safest environment for consumers through guaranteed payouts, strict player protection measures and monitoring systems designed to identify suspicious betting activity.
The GGL continues to focus on evaluating advertising standards, player protection measures and responsible gambling safeguards. However, the regulator has yet to indicate whether channelisation rates, product competitiveness and the impact of existing market restrictions will form part of any future reform agenda.
DSWV maintains that time is running-out for GGL and Bundesländer to recognise present deficiencies of online gambling, as state authorities need to agree on the terms of federal review of the Interstate market by the Bundestag.
