Lawmakers are pressuring the CFTC to stop prediction markets from allowing users to trade on wildfires. However, no markets have been opened on wildfires since January last year.
Even the markets that did exist were available only on Polymarket’s international platform, which is not subject to CFTC regulation. Polymarket only launched its US platform late last year.
A Polymarket spokesperson confirmed with CasinoBeats via email that no wildfire markets have been available since January 2025.
Lawmakers Write Letter to CFTC Urging Action
Nevertheless, a group of nine lawmakers wrote a letter to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig last week demanding that the agency take action.
“Offering bets on destructive wildfires threatens to minimize communities’ suffering all so the rich and powerful can profit,” the letter stated. “There’s also the heightened risk — according to state and local fire officials — that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful.”
“When I heard that they were opening up betting on wildfires, I was astounded,” Sen. Jeff Merkley, one of the lawmakers who signed the letter, told The Washington Post. “You have the ability of human action to influence the outcome.”
No Smoke Without Fire
The letter, and most reporting on it, focuses on Polymarket offering users the chance to trade on the Palisades and Los Angeles wildfires in January last year.
We found three wildfire-related markets with a combined volume of around $560,000.
The last market ended on January 31, 2025. A search of Polymarket’s international site found no current markets related to the ongoing wildfires in LA or Washington.
“There’s one major problem with all the reports and hand-wringing about wildfire betting: No one is actually offering betting on wildfires,” wrote Dustin Gouker in his prediction market newsletter The Event Horizon.
Senators Previously Railed Against Death Markets
The uproar against wildfire prediction markets is similar to the opposition that emerged against markets related to conflicts in Iran.
Sen. Adam Schiff, who also signed off on the wildfire letter, introduced the DEATH BETS Act in March this year. The Discouraging Exploitative Assassination, Tragedy, and Harm Betting in Event Trading Systems Act (DEATH BETS Act) seeks to clarify that any markets related to death are not allowed.
Markets on death are already prohibited by the terms of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA). Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour insisted that the company already follows the CEA’s rules. He stated, “We don’t list markets directly tied to death. When there are markets where potential outcomes involve death, we design the rules to prevent people from profiting from death.”
Kalshi has also not released any wildfire-related markets and has said it has no intention of doing so. War-related markets still appear on Polymarket, but on its international platform, which operates independently of CFTC regulation.
CFTC Continues to Defend Prediction Markets
The CEA also prohibits markets related to gaming, which former Sen. Chris Dodd clarified to mean gambling, such as sports betting. However, the CFTC, rather than enforce those rules, continues to defend prediction markets.
On Tuesday, the agency exercised its emergency authority to order Kalshi to continue operating as normal. Selig stated, “Congress did not intend for derivatives exchanges to be regulated under a patchwork of state gaming laws.”
Sen. Dodd, however, confirmed in recent comments to the CFTC that Congress did not intend to overrule state authority to regulate gambling when amending the CEA with the Dodd-Frank Act in 2010.
The CFTC’s emergency declaration was a response to New York’s lawsuit against Kalshi. State authorities sued the company for $36 billion and want it to cease offering sports markets in the state. Selig added, “New York has no business regulating these interstate financial markets.”
While fighting the battles against state gambling regulators, responding to the lawmakers about the non-existent wildfire markets should be more straightforward.
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