The March Madness Final Four is set after UConn’s improbable comeback win over Duke on Sunday. Saturday’s games feature No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 UConn (6:09 ET, TBS) and No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 1 Arizona (8:49 ET, TBS).
Take another look at yesterday’s incredible buzzer-beater by Braylon Mullins:
Now, let’s examine Final Four odds before getting to our predictions and picks.
Final Four Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
DraftKings is dealing Illinois as a 2.5-point favorite over UConn with a total of 139.5, and Michigan as a 1.5-point favorite over Arizona with a total of 157.5 as of publication.
Here are the championship futures odds for each remaining team:
- Michigan +175
- Arizona +175
- Illinois +400
- UConn +550
Best Bet Illinois vs. UConn: Against the Spread
UConn rallied from 19 points down to overcome Duke in the Elite Eight. The Huskies (33-5) are led by center Tarris Reed Jr. (14.7 ppg, 8.8 rpg) and forward Alex Karaban (13.2 ppg, 5.2 rpg).
Duke stifled Karaban yesterday, limiting him to just five points. Reed helped overcome that with a team-high 26 points. The roles might be reversed for the Huskies against Illinois, whose interior defense limited Iowa to seven two-point field goals.
Illinois is paced offensively by freshman phenom Keaton Wagler, who scored 25 points in the Illini’s 71-59 win over Iowa. David Mirkovic, a key piece along the Illini’s front line, has been a monster on the glass during the NCAA Tournament.
Check out his rebounding stats in all four games:
- Penn (17)
- VCU (5)
- Houston (10)
- Iowa (12)
Mirkovic is averaging 11 rpg during March Madness.
UConn averages 18 fouls per game, ranking 225th nationally. If that trend continues — and the Illini’s interior defense remains its suffocating self — we like the favorite to win and cover in the first semifinal.
Pick: Illinois -2.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
Best Bet Michigan vs. Arizona: UNDER 157.5
Michigan has scored 90+ points in all four tournament games. Arizona hasn’t been quite as prolific, but it did hang 109 on Arkansas in the Sweet 16. How can this game stay under the total?
Arizona won a lower-scoring game in the Elite Eight, beating Purdue, 79-64. Notably, Purdue beat Michigan in the Big Ten championship game prior to the start of March Madness.
The Wildcats do the majority of their scoring inside the paint, but Michigan presents a huge challenge with 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara leading the rim protection. KenPom has the Wolverines ranked No. 1 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Arizona holds teams to 39% shooting from the field.
Take the UNDER on this lofty total.
Pick: UNDER 157.5 (-110)
Best Player Props for Final Four
UConn’s Alex Karaban OVER 11.5 Points (-122 at FanDuel)
As mentioned, Duke locked Karaban down, but he scored 22, 27, and 17 points in the first three tournament games.
The strength of Illinois’ defense lies inside, but Karaban does much of his damage from behind the arc. Iowa shot 37% from three and made 11 treys against Illinois.
Karaban, who leads the Huskies with 73 3-pointers on the season, shoots 38.6% from long range. This game sets up nicely as a bounce-back for the senior forward.
Michigan’s Yaxel Lendeborg OVER 16.5 Points (-114 at FanDuel)
Yaxel Lendeborg is having a tournament worthy of Most Outstanding Player. Lendeborg’s last three games have been ultra-efficient:
- 27 points, seven rebounds vs. Tennessee
- 23 points, 12 rebounds vs. Alabama
- 25 points, 6 rebounds vs. St. Louis
Also consider taking him to go OVER 2.5 3-pointers at +200 odds. Lendeborg has three, four, and three 3-pointers over those last three games.
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