Banking group Morgan Stanley has cut its estimate for Macau’s full-year 2026 gross gaming revenue (GGR). It now expects annual GGR to be circa MOP260.6 billion (US$32.3 billion) compared to 2025’s MOP247.40 billion.
Analysts Praveen Choudhary and Stephen Grambling said in a Sunday note: “We expect 2026 GGR to grow by 5.3 percent year-on-year, below consensus expectations of 6 percent.” Morgan Stanley’s previous GGR growth forecast was also of 6 percent.
They added, referring to their latest estimate: “Our forecasts imply quarterly GGR growth of only 2 percent to 3 percent year-on-year through fourth-quarter 2026.
“That said, June and July could see slowdowns related to the [FIFA] World Cup and might even post a negative year-on-year growth number.”
Morgan Stanley also revised downward its 2026 estimate for the sector’s earnings before interest, taxation, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA), to “1 percent” from “2 percent” previously.
It also stated its “biggest changes” on EBITDA forecasts at individual-operator level were for Sands China Ltd and SJM Holdings Ltd, linked to its expectations for “weaker second-quarter EBITDA performances”.
Morgan Stanley forecasts full-year 2026 corporate EBITDA across the six Macau operators to come in at the equivalent of just under US$7.93 billion.
“We expect negative EBITDA estimate revisions to continue, driven by lower GGR growth expectations and a structurally-higher cost base,” stated the bank.
In a preview on second-quarter earnings season, due shortly, Morgan Stanley said regarding GGR market-share data for the three months to June 30: “Sands China Ltd and Melco Resorts & Entertainment Ltd are expected to have ceded market share during the quarter, while MGM China Ltd and Wynn Macau Ltd are seen gaining.”
The bank thinks Sands China’s GGR share will be down 2.6 percent sequentially, at 23.6 percent, with Melco Resorts likely to be down 0.8 percent sequentially, at 14.4 percent for the quarter.
For MGM China, Morgan Stanley anticipates a 17.0-percent quarterly share, up 1.2 percent, and for Wynn Macau Ltd, a 13.9-percent quarterly share of GGR, up 1.3 percent sequentially.
“Based on our market share assumptions, MGM China and Wynn Macau Ltd are projected to exceed consensus EBITDA estimates by circa 9 percent to 10 percent in second-quarter 2026,” stated Morgan Stanley.
The bank forecasts market-wide property EBITDA for the second quarter at just under US$2.08 billion, which would be circa 4.9 percent down sequentially on first-quarter’s reported circa US$2.19 billion. Judged year-on-year, that would make second-quarter property EBITDA roughly flat, said Morgan Stanley.
Assessing the implied growth required to meet full-year 2026 consensus EBITDA forecasts, Morgan Stanley stated: “MGM China and Wynn Macau Ltd screen as relatively lower risk due to their stronger first-half run-rates and positive revision potentials.”
The bank added: “Peers appear to face higher hurdles, with required growth appearing more back- ended and dependent on a recovery in share.”
