On Friday, two very different statements from Michael Selig, chairman of the US Commodities Futures Trading Commission, showed just how wide the regulator’s remit is as scrutiny continues to mount over whether the one-man show can effectively police all of its financial beats.
The day began with a CFTC announcement that it has filed suit against the state of Arkansas to “block the state’s attempts to halt event-contract trading and impose up to hundreds of millions of dollars in civil penalties on CFTC-registered exchanges”.
This marks the eleventh US state the commission has filed suit against as more regulators and attorneys general across the country ramp up their opposition to the controversial platforms. In addition to the state lawsuits, the CFTC has also submitted amicus briefs in four federal circuit court cases.
Arkansas Attorney General Tim Griffin announced the civil suit against Kalshi, which was filed in Independence County Circuit Court, on 4 November. The state is seeking significant penalties for what it deems to be illegal gambling, including damages and tax fees as well as restoration of lost funds for residents. By now, Kalshi and others have faced essentially every form of legal challenge, including state, federal, civil and criminal lawsuits.
Selig said in a statement that prediction markets “continue to prove their value in being useful for risk management and providing the public with valuable information about the future”. Under his direction, the commission “will continue to defend its sole jurisdiction over these federally regulated markets”, he said.
Betting, barley and beer?
On the same day that Selig asserted the commission’s authority over prediction markets and their ever-increasing arsenal of event contracts, he also appeared before a very different audience — the Beer Institute’s annual membership meeting in Washington. The Beer Institute, as the name suggests, is the national trade group for the $471 billion US brewing industry, with the tagline: “We’re here for beer.”
Selig’s speech was primarily focused on aluminum prices for beer distributors. In addition to prediction markets, the CFTC’s primary duty is to police the multitrillion-dollar US commodities and derivatives markets, which includes everything from crops like hops and barley to materials like metal for beer cans. The CFTC chair said Friday that alleviating aluminum price concerns is one of his “top priorities”, and he has directed the commission to “examine these pricing mechanisms and develop concrete reform options” for US manufacturers.
“Our responsibility is to oversee a nearly $600 trillion notional derivatives market and foster this market to be competitive, transparent, and financially sound,” Selig said. “We also work to protect market participants from fraud, manipulation, and abusive practices.”
It has been nearly one year since Selig took the reins at the commission on 22 December 2025. In that time, he has remained the lone sitting commissioner at the CFTC, which historically featured a bipartisan panel of five commissioners. Such appointments are nominated by the US president and confirmed by the Senate. There are still no other active nominations as of writing.
Less staff with more duties for CFTC
The ability — or inability — of the commission to function properly with a lone commissioner has been a key point of contention with the regulated gaming industry.
Selig has consistently defended prediction markets as federal exchanges under the CFTC’s purview, but the agency has a total headcount of just 636 permanent staff, per government records. That figure represents a 14% decline from 2023 levels, according to Revelio Labs.
When comparing the total trading volume on CFTC-licensed prediction markets, which is still in the billions, to the trillions staked on traditional commodities and derivatives, the latter are a much bigger priority for federal regulators. Gaming stakeholders and lawmakers have both questioned whether Selig’s team can actually police both effectively.
If anything, the commission is continuing to try and expand its coverage despite the mounting criticism. The CFTC was poised to undertake a slew of new responsibilities related to cryptocurrency as part of the CLARITY Act, a federal market structure bill for digital assets that ultimately flamed out in Congress.
Those efforts are shelved for now, but the commission has approved several new types of financial assets, including perpetual futures on crypto and stock prices. These so-called “perps” are derivatives contracts with no expiration date. The CFTC is also now exploring the possibility of 24/7 derivatives trading, and will host a roundtable on the topic on 15 December.
From a political standpoint, Selig and the CFTC have enjoyed staunch support from US President Donald Trump, and CFTC commissioners can only be removed for cause by the president. On Friday, Trump sent a bipartisan pair of nominations to the Senate in Nathan Anonick, a senior counsel on the Senate Agriculture Committee and Matthew Rowland, a Democrat.
