How Bookmakers Are Adjusting to NBA Tankathon

The phenomenon known as tanking is creating waves in the NBA betting market.

As the NBA Tankathon marches on, oddsmakers are trying to keep up by adjusting lines accordingly.

Some sportsbooks are better at this than others.

To any astute NBA observer, it’s clear that several teams are not putting their best foot forward; in fact, they’re trying to lose. This isn’t a new phenomenon – for years, teams have been tanking for a better chance at a higher draft pick –  but the problem is particularly pronounced this season, largely due to a change in the draft lottery structure.

While the Utah Jazz were fined $500,000 by the league, and the Indiana Pacers were hit with a $100,000 bill, the issue goes beyond two teams. The Chicago Bulls,Sacramento Kings, Dallas Mavericks, Memphis Grizzlies, Brooklyn Nets, and Washington Wizards are also among franchises thought to be prioritizing draft position over winning now.

Betting against these teams – better yet, playing multiple of their opponents in moneyline parlays – is a popular wagering strategy. Sportsbooks, of course, are on to this and pricing moneylines in an effort to keep the edge in their favor.

“The lines are a little bit accentuated against [teams that are tanking], especially the moneylines not being exactly correlative to the point spread that you normally find,” Jeff Sherman, vice president of risk at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, told Gambling Insider. 

“The public likes to bet against those teams in parlays, most notably on the moneyline, so you’re seeing a little bit of a difference there.”

VSiN host Gill Alexander, himself a prominent bettor, believes there are edges still to be found – at the right sportsbook.

“I’m sure at the Westgate they’re probably sharper than most, and they’ve probably adjusted for it,” Alexander said. “I can tell you they’re not adjusting everywhere. … 

“My question would be, is there enough of an adjustment against teams [trying to lose]? It raises your strike price, your break-even price by [books] doing that, but will they win in the end anyway when these teams are so hell-bent on losing?”

Sharp Edges Dulled

Staying ahead of bookmakers on news about injuries – or, more broadly, which players will or won’t play – is an important edge for some sharp bettors. More so this season, though, teams are pulling key players mid-game, rather than listing them on injury reports. This mitigates the edge.

“The method that teams are employing can vary,” explained Chris Bennett, sportsbook director at Circa Sports. “The Jazz have started their best players in games and then just taken them out in the second half. That is fundamentally different than when a team announces that someone isn’t going to play at all before a game starts. 

“We’re having to navigate these different methodologies of tanking, and I think we’re on a level playing field with the customers as far as getting information and just having our own independent opinion on how much confidence we have in the market number and our willingness to accept a certain degree of liability.”

Sherman agrees that professional groups are not consistently getting the information early and implied books are on the defensive when teams start putting guys on the bench.

“When this information comes out, and it comes out in a lot of games more so than just the tanking aspect, you see a lot of books immediately just close the game and kind of reset and give it a few minutes and get it back up, rather than adjusting on the fly,” the NBA oddsmaker said.

“That’s what we’ve been doing,” Sherman continued. “I used to just adjust and go [for example] from 2.5 to 4.5 and adjust the total and keep the wagering open. Now, when we’re getting all this information out throughout the day, basically we just shut the game down, give it a minute, think about it, kind of put together a market reaction and get the line back up.”

Alexander believes tanking is dulling some edges NBA sharps have typically found, citing examples of anomalous seasons for usually successful bettors.

“I actually think it is a real troublesome thing for folks who rely on injury reports and that kind of thing because you simply don’t know whether the NBA fining the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers will give those teams pause to do it so blatantly again,” Alexander remarked. “The answer we’re finding out is they don’t seem to care. I just don’t know if a person who is doing an above-board model-based approach can truly factor in this completely bizarre thing. 

“It’s one thing to know injuries, it’s another thing to be able to wrap your arms around who’s going to sit in the 4th quarter.”

Nothing New, But Evolving

Yes, tanking is more evident this season, but sportsbooks – the sharp ones, at least – have long had their guards up during NBA season.

Circa, known for taking big bets from all comers, is cognizant of how some NBA teams tend to go about their business.

“Our CEO [Derek Stevens] is very willing to take some very large bets on things like the NFL and college football. He doesn’t have nearly the same enthusiasm when it comes to NBA, and this is a lot of the reason.” Bennett said. “It’s not new what we’re dealing with, but it is evolving over the years, and we’re just gonna set limits appropriately so we can’t get burned too badly.”

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