China — By 2023, mass gaming will have surpassed pre-pandemic levels by 15%.

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Melco China

According to analysts at Sanford C. Bernstein, a more normalized 2023 will see Macau’s casino sector produce EBITDA close to pre-pandemic levels, with mainstream gaming leaping over 2019’s statistics by 15% to compensate for a prolonged fall in VIP gaming.

Overall sales will be back up to just over 80% of epidemic levels, according to Vitaly Umansky, an analyst at the rating agency, though VIP gaming will account for only 28% of 2019 revenues.

“VIP will remain a fraction, [on 2019’s figures] largely on Direct VIP, with likely some junket agent business as well, but we assume no junket run room operations returning.”

GGR is expected to rise to 44% of pre-COVID levels this year, with mass gaming accounting for 66% and VIP accounting for only 9%.

“While Macau will continue to experience soft revenues during the first half of the year, we expect travel resumption from Hong Kong to begin by end of Q1/early Q2 and improved travel from China in the summer leading to improving GGR through the course of 2022

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Nassima Azmzm

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