Sanford C. Bernstein forecasts Sands China will exceed its 2019 EBITDA of US$3.3 billion next year, with EBITDA reaching US$5 billion by 2025.
“Sands China is the largest gaming investor in Macau, having invested US$14.5 billion over the last 20 years and controlling over 30% of the market,” said Bernstein analyst Vitaly Umansky. We estimate Sands China’s Net debt/EBITDA to reduce down to 2019 levels by 2024, and dividends to resume, owing to the considerable historical investment and low capex commitment over the next few years.
“The long-term fundamentals in Macau and Sands’ positioning are positive, our thesis on secular growth in Mass is intact and Sands is well placed to succeed in the premium mass and mass driven market.”
In Singapore, it is tipping Marina Bay Sands to recover to 2019 levels by 2024 with EBITDA of US$1.74bn by 2024 and US$1.9bn by 2025.
“Marina Bay Sands was the single most profitable casino asset globally in 2019 and generated the highest EBITDA both in dollars and margin, and can revert to those levels over the next two years as Singapore travel resumes,” he said.
“We expect MBS to maintain its lucrative positioning in the future, especially long-term on the back of its large-scale renovation and expansion. While much will depend on the timing of recovery in Macau and Singapore (largely driven by the timing of reopening of travel), over the longer term, we expect recovery and growth in both markets.”